24-Hour Party Retirees?

Supposedly the current surge in hotspots across the South and Southwest is being driven by young people, who in turn spread their contagion outward and upward to their elders. This narrative could be confirmed with data: a younger average age of infection leads to younger hospitalized cases, in turn leading to relatively younger people dying of the disease. But the data are hard to come by.

The CDC used to sort covid case counts and hospitalizations into age categories, but not anymore. Though the daily death count summaries are delayed by two weeks, the CDC does still does categorize deaths demographically. The current surge in cases and percent-positives began in mid-June; death counts, a lagging indicator of infection, began their corresponding jump on July 7.  Provisional CDC counts show that, during the week ending July 11, 78 percent of US deaths occurred among those aged 65 and older — a percentage that’s remained stable since the early days of the epidemic. If younger people are disproportionately testing positive during the recent rise in case counts, then that downward age trend might be an artifact of increased testing among people returning to work and proactively getting themselves tested, rather than a shift in the demographics of contagion.

Though the under-65 death count remains steady, there has been a downward shift within the 65+ demographic. In the July 4-11 provisional stats, the proportion of deaths for those aged 85 and older decreased, while for those aged 75-84 the death rate went up.

The recent decrease in deaths in the oldest demographic stratum might be just a temporary statistical variability that will regress to the mean over the next week or two. Alternatively, it may well reflect tighter safety precautions being exercised at nursing homes. While those 85 and older make up only 2% of the American population, they comprise nearly half of nursing home residents. And nursing homes have accounted for more than 40% of covid deaths in the US. The Kaiser Family Foundation compiled data on case counts from 35 states during the two weeks ending July 8. While new covid cases went up 42 percent overall, new cases originating in nursing homes and other residential facilities increased only 11 percent.

But, while coronavirus deaths among those 85 and older went down, the death toll rose for those aged 75 to 84. Again, random statistical variance might explain it. Alternatively, the jump could be a direct result of societal reopening. Older people living in the community might not be going to the workplace or the bars or the beach, but they do socialize, go shopping, get their hair done, play Mahjong, go out to eat. They could just as easily be catching covid from one another as from the 24-hour party kids. Older people might be experiencing more intense social distancing fatigue, not wanting to waste their few remaining active years locked away in self-isolation.

 

3 thoughts on “24-Hour Party Retirees?

  1. The weekly update from CDC supports the proportional decrease in deaths for those aged 85 and above, suggesting that nursing home safety has tightened up. The specific uptick for the 75-84 year olds seems to have returned to the mean. However, the general contention of this post holds: there is no measurable swing toward younger people dying in the recent American case surge.

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  2. This same pattern continues through the 7/25 provisional death counts: a decrease in deaths aged 85+, but proportionately stable for other age tranches. If it persists, that decrease among the very oldest would lower the overall age-adjusted mortality rate for the US. The same number of deaths at a lower mortality rate implies a higher infection rate. These two variables are perfectly confounded: only random surveillance dx testing can parse them apart.

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