CDC’s “Best Estimate” for Fatality Rate Converges on Mine

In late May the CDC estimated that the covid infection fatality rate in the US is 0.3 percent — half my estimate of 0.6 percent. I wrote a post questioning the credibility of that estimate. Then in late July the CDC updated its seroprevalence estimates, which implied a fatality rate higher than its earlier estimate and converging on mine. Now the CDC has announced that its “current best estimate” for the covid infection fatality rate is 0.65 percent.

So, the Centers for Disease Control have doubled their estimate of the lethal danger that the virus presents to the American public. Could that pessimistic evidence-based revision have prompted the Administration to sideline its own public health agency?

As I wrote in yesterday’s post, recent seroprevalence surveys suggest that the 0.6 percent US fatality rate might need to be revised even further upward. Next post I’ll look at the IHME’s estimates.

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