Covid European Surge

On 7 September, the last time I looked at the data, Europe had recorded about 0.4 covid deaths per 100K of population over the preceding two-week interval. For the US the number was 3 deaths per 100K. Now, as of 21 October, the US 14-day count has gone up slightly, to 3.2 deaths per 100K. The situation in Europe, by contrast, has deteriorated rapidly. Over the past two weeks, Europe averaged around 2.3 deaths per 100K — nearly a sixfold increase from early September.

Six weeks ago, Romania was the only European country with a higher death rate than the US. Now there are five:

  • Czechia = 9.2
  • Romania = 4.7
  • Hungary = 4.5
  • Belgium = 4.0
  • Spain = 3.9

The situation in the States remains more lethal than Europe. As listed in yesterday’s post, 9 US states experienced a 14-day death rate of over 5.0 per 100K. And, based on increasing case counts and hospitalizations, the US death rate will likely surge over the next two weeks. But the European spike has been even more abrupt; soon its death counts will likely outpace even America’s anticipated rapid increase.

5 thoughts on “Covid European Surge

  1. 29 October — The US 14-day covid death rate has increased from 3.2 to 3.5 per 100K, while the European average is now over 4 — nearly double what it was a week ago. European countries exceeding the US’s rate: Czechia (14.1), Belgium (7.6), Hungary (6.0), Romania (5.6), Spain (4.4), Poland (4.3), France (4.1), Croatia (3.9), UK (3.8), Bulgaria (3.8).

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  2. As of 5 October — 1 week later — The US’s 14-day covid death rate has gone up to 3.7, while Europe’s has nearly doubled again to around 7. Now most Euro countries exceed the US death rate.

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  3. Using data from 12 October — another week later — here are national covid deaths per 100K of population over the past 14 days:
    – US = 4.0
    – France = 10.4
    – Italy = 9.1
    – UK = 7.5
    – Belgium = 22.0
    – Czechia = 27.2
    – Netherlands = 6.1
    – Germany = 2.2

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  4. Data through 19 October: the US’s 14-day covid death total is now 5.3, with the EU’s average at around 11.
    – France 12.1
    – Italy 12.7
    – UK 8.5
    – Belgium 22.5
    – Czechia 23.9
    – Germany 3.1
    – Romania 10.6
    – Spain 8.1

    Daily case counts have started trending downward for France, Belgium, and Czechia; the others have leveled off.

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  5. Data as of 28 October, the 14-day covid death counts per 100K:
    – USA = 6.4
    – France = 12.0
    – Italy = 15.8
    – UK = 9.4
    – Belgium = 18.5
    – Czechia = 19.2
    – Germany = 4.3
    – Romania = 11.3
    – Spain = 8.3

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